Misleading Demographic Trends: India’s Muslim Population

The Population Foundation of India (PFI), a non-profit organization (NGO), has recently cast doubt on media reports surrounding a study allegedly showcasing demographic shifts within India’s Muslim population. According to the PFI, these reports may be misleading and warrant closer examination to uncover potential biases or inaccuracies.

Amidst a flurry of media coverage and statements from political figures regarding the growth of India’s Muslim population, the PFI has raised concerns about what it perceives as “misleading” and “inaccurate” narratives.

On Wednesday, multiple news outlets disseminated information about a study titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)” purportedly released by the Indian Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC). The study purported to analyze changes in the share of the population of religious minorities across 167 countries over six decades.

The predominant headline across various publications underscored a shift in India’s demographic landscape, highlighting a reported increase in the Muslim population’s share from 9.84 per cent in 1950 to 14.09 per cent in 2015, indicating a significant rise of 43.15 per cent. Conversely, the share of India’s Hindu population purportedly declined from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent during the same period, reflecting a decrease of 7.82 per cent.

The paper notably asserted that while the Muslim population’s share in India increased by 43.15 per cent during this time frame, the Hindu population’s share decreased by 7.82 per cent. It claimed that in 1950, Hindus accounted for 84.68 per cent of the population, which decreased to 78.06 per cent by 2015. Similarly, the share of Muslims in the population purportedly rose from 9.84 per cent to 14.09 per cent.

However, it’s crucial to note that the most recent Census of India was conducted in 2011, with the government postponing the 2021 Census indefinitely. According to the 2011 Census, there were reportedly 96.63 crore Hindus, constituting 79.8 per cent of the population, and 17.22 crore Muslims, accounting for 14.2 per cent of the population at that time.

The PFI’s scrutiny highlights the need for caution when interpreting demographic data and underscores the importance of rigorous analysis to ensure accuracy and avoid the perpetuation of misleading narratives. As discussions surrounding India’s demographic landscape continue, it’s imperative to rely on comprehensive and verifiable sources of information to foster informed discourse and policymaking.