Kabul Faces Imminent Threat of Becoming the First Major City to Run Completely Dry by 2030: Report

Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, is on the brink of a severe water crisis and could become the first modern metropolis to exhaust its water resources entirely by the end of this decade, according to a report cited by The Guardian on Saturday. The alarming findings come from a study conducted by the global humanitarian organization Mercy Corps.

Driven by accelerating urban expansion and the intensifying effects of climate change, the city’s underground water reserves—its primary source of drinking water—have witnessed a drastic decline. In the past ten years alone, water tables in Kabul’s aquifers have dropped by as much as 30 meters. Nearly 50 percent of the boreholes across the city have dried up, putting the lives and livelihoods of Kabul’s estimated seven million residents in jeopardy.

The report also reveals that Kabul is currently drawing 44 million cubic meters more water each year than nature can replenish. If this overextraction continues unchecked, the city’s aquifers could be entirely depleted by 2030. This scenario poses an existential crisis for a city already grappling with conflict, economic uncertainty, and fragile infrastructure.

“There must be a concerted global effort to document this growing crisis and raise awareness about the urgent need for action,” said Dayne Curry, Country Director of Mercy Corps Afghanistan. In his remarks to The Guardian, Curry stressed that water scarcity could lead to mass internal displacement. “If there is no water, people will abandon their homes. Ignoring Afghanistan’s water needs will only exacerbate the challenges of migration and deepen the humanitarian crisis.”

Contamination of groundwater is compounding the crisis. Up to 80% of Kabul’s groundwater is considered unsafe due to contamination from sewage, excessive salt levels, and dangerous concentrations of arsenic. Many families are forced to spend as much as 30% of their household income just to obtain safe drinking water. According to the report, over two-thirds of residents have fallen into debt because of water expenses.

Nazifa, a schoolteacher from the Khair Khana area of Kabul, shared her struggles: “Afghanistan is dealing with many hardships, but the water shortage is among the most devastating. Every household is affected—especially those with limited means. Clean, affordable well water is simply unavailable.”

As public infrastructure fails to meet demand, private actors have stepped in—often exploiting the crisis for profit. Companies have begun drilling private wells to sell water at inflated prices. “We used to pay 500 afghanis every ten days for enough water from tankers,” Nazifa explained. “Now that same quantity costs us 1,000 afghanis.”

Since 2001, Kabul’s population has multiplied more than seven times, significantly increasing water demand. However, the lack of effective governance, especially following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, has worsened the situation. International assistance has sharply declined. As per The Guardian, only $8.4 million of the $264 million required for water-related infrastructure projects was delivered by early 2025. Additionally, $3 billion in aid remains frozen due to political uncertainties.

“This entire system is heavily reliant on foreign aid,” said Curry. “Short-term water relief may appear to address the problem, but without sustained investment in long-term solutions, the crisis will persist.”

One of the proposed long-term solutions is a pipeline project intended to channel clean water from the Panjshir River to Kabul. The project aims to supply safe water to at least two million residents and reduce dependence on underground reserves. Though the design phase concluded in late 2024, the project is still awaiting funding.

Dr. Najibullah Sadid, a senior water resources researcher, offered a stark warning: “We’re running out of time. This is a storm with no way back if we delay further. People in Kabul are being forced to choose between food and water.” Despite their economic struggles, he noted that local residents remain willing to contribute to sustainable solutions. “Whatever can deliver relief fastest must be prioritized—we simply need to begin somewhere.”