India’s Patrolling Agreement with China: A Diplomatic Illusion?

India’s so-called diplomatic victory with China over the patrolling agreement masks a strategic setback, with key border points still under China’s control and little change on the ground.

The recent Indo-China patrolling agreement, hailed by Indian media as a diplomatic victory, is increasingly seen as a mere face-saving measure for India, with little substantive change on the ground. Critics, including retired Major General SP Sinha, argue that the agreement represents a strategic move by China to further consolidate its position along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), leaving India with reduced access to critical patrolling points. Despite the optimism in Indian media, analysts suggest that the actual impact of the deal is negligible, with China maintaining its expansionist agenda.

The BJP government’s portrayal of the agreement as a success has sparked opposition demands for greater transparency, especially regarding India’s loss of patrolling points and the creation of new buffer zones. While the media celebrated the deal, experts noted that nearly 60% of India’s patrolling areas are now restricted, a significant concession that undermines India’s strategic position. Despite diplomatic gestures, India’s access to critical sectors such as Depsang and Demchok remains limited, and China’s influence in the region is stronger than ever.

President Xi Jinping’s recent remarks, emphasizing Sino-Russian cooperation and avoiding direct engagement on China-India relations, suggest that Beijing is more focused on its broader geopolitical goals than on making meaningful concessions to India. The absence of concrete support for India during the Modi-Xi talks has led analysts to question whether India has ceded too much in exchange for diplomatic optics.

The concept of buffer zones, while presented as a sign of de-escalation, does not bring India back to the pre-2020 status along the LAC. Critics argue that the new agreements leave strategic areas under China’s control, with India’s security concerns growing over time. Even the limited disengagement in some sectors fails to address the core issues, with China maintaining a strategic advantage across key regions.

The Modi government’s reliance on diplomatic rhetoric and the media’s portrayal of a “successful consensus” are increasingly seen as attempts to mask the reality of India’s diminished leverage in border negotiations. While the Indian government continues to emphasize its diplomatic achievements, analysts warn that these agreements, largely symbolic, do little to alter the strategic balance on the ground.

The hype surrounding these patrolling agreements may give the illusion of progress, but for those with a clear view of the situation, the reality is a strategic setback for India, with China continuing to strengthen its hold on the region.