Garrison State or Gateway: How Internal Decay and Armed Rebellions are Burying the Act East Delusion and India’s ASEAN Ambitions

New Delhi has spent years screaming about its Act East Policy but the ground reality in the Northeast tells a story of total state failure. India markets the Seven Sister states as a bridge to ASEAN while they are actually a bleeding wound of insurgency and ethnic cleansing. From a Pakistani strategic perspective the truth is clear. India is too fractured internally to ever lead regionally. The Northeast isn’t a gateway. It is a security liability that exposes the hollow nature of Indian power.

1 The Bloody Math of Insurgency

India’s Ministry of Home Affairs tries to hide its incompetence behind fake peace narratives but their own numbers expose the violence. In 2023 alone the Northeast recorded 243 insurgency incidents. This isn’t just a small problem. It is a concentrated war zone located exactly where India claims to be building trade routes. Manipur led the chaos with 187 incidents followed by 35 in Nagaland 13 in Arunachal Pradesh and 8 in Assam. The human cost is just as high with 38 civilians and 8 security personnel killed in 2023. These aren’t signs of a developing trade hub. These are the statistics of a failing state that cannot even protect its own borders.

2 Manipur The Epicenter of State Collapse

The state of Manipur has officially become the graveyard of India’s ASEAN ambitions. The ethnic war that exploded on May 3 2023 between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo groups proved that the Indian government has no control over its periphery.

• Over 60000 people were displaced and more than 200 were killed.
• The most humiliating part for the Indian military was the looting of their own armories.
• Mobs walked away with 6500 weapons and 600000 rounds of ammunition.

When a country cannot stop its own citizens from stripping its police armories bare it has no right to talk about regional leadership. Moreh the so called gateway to Myanmar is now a ghost town of violence and burnt dreams.

3 Governance by Digital Dictatorship

India calls itself a digital democracy but it treats the Northeast like a colony under siege. Access Now reports show that India is the world leader in internet shutdowns. In 2023 Manipur was plunged into digital darkness for 212 days. Nationwide there were 116 shutdowns. This is not how a modern economy works. If India has to kill the internet for seven months just to keep a state from burning it means their governance has completely collapsed. No ASEAN partner will trust a trade route that can be switched off by a panicked bureaucrat in Delhi at any moment.

4 AFSPA The Permanent Occupation

The continued use of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act or AFSPA proves that India rules the Northeast through the barrel of a gun. In October 2024 India extended this brutal law in three districts of Assam including Tinsukia Dibrugarh and Charaideo. They claim it is to fight the ULFA Independent group. This extension is a confession that the region is not at peace. You cannot build an international economic corridor in a place where soldiers have a license to kill on suspicion. The Gateway to the East is nothing more than a military garrison.

5 The Infrastructure Money Pit

India’s two biggest connectivity projects are global jokes. The Kaladan Multi Modal project and the Trilateral Highway are drowning in delays and corruption.

• The Kaladan project cost was revised to 2904.04 crore rupees in 2015.
• By December 2024 a parliamentary report showed that out of a 109.2 kilometer road only 20 kilometers of earthwork was done.
• Only 356 crore rupees have been spent on a road that was supposed to be finished years ago.

The India Myanmar Thailand Trilateral Highway is also a disaster. The 120.74 kilometer Kalewa Yagyi road and 69 bridges were supposed to be done in three years starting in 2017. Nearly a decade later the project is still stuck. India is great at making big claims but on the ground they are incapable of finishing a simple road.

6 Trade Failure and Economic Lies

The economic numbers prove the Act East Policy is a total flop. India’s leaders once promised 100 billion dollars in trade with ASEAN by 2015 and 200 billion by 2022. The reality is that in 2023 2024 trade only reached 122.67 billion dollars. India missed its own target by nearly 80 billion dollars. The rhetoric from Delhi is fast but the actual economic growth is crawling.

7 The Myanmar Trap

India’s entire strategy is now hostage to the civil war in Myanmar. Indian officials admit that security conditions across the border are stopping their projects. This shows a massive strategic blunder. India tied its future to a region it cannot control. The Northeast is now a dead end rather than a transit point.

India’s Northeast Security Collapse Exposed the Failure of the Act East Strategy

The Northeast of India is a lesson in state failure. With 243 insurgency incidents 212 days of internet blackouts and thousands of stolen weapons the region is a security nightmare. India’s Act East Policy is just a hollow slogan designed to hide the fact that they are losing control of their own territory. Until India stops treating the Northeast like a colony and actually builds something that works the world will continue to see through their lies. The gateway is closed and the bridge is broken.