An Empire of Incompetence: How Myanmar’s Chaos Exposed the Hollow Myth of India’s Security Doctrine

The mask of a rising global power has finally slipped, revealing the pathetic face of a state that cannot even secure its own backyard. Delhi’s hollow claims of being a regional hegemon are crumbling as the collapse of Myanmar turns India’s northeast into a burning playground for chaos. For decades, the Indian establishment has treated Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram as mere colonial outposts. Now, the 1,643 kilometre border with Myanmar has transformed from a simple frontier into a violent corridor of instability that Delhi is powerless to stop. Since the military coup on 1 February 2021, the entire region has been spiralling into an abyss while the central government remains paralyzed by its own arrogance. This is no longer a theoretical concern; it is a measurable disaster documented in rising refugee numbers and massive arms seizures that expose the total fragility of the Indian state. The reality is that the northeast is paying the price for the strategic denial of a government that prefers fake narratives over hard security truths. Delhi is failing its own people, leaving them at the mercy of a cross-border war it refuses to confront.

1 THE HUMANITARIAN EXPLOSION INDIA DESPERATELY TRIES TO HIDE

One of the most striking indicators of this spillover is a massive forced mobility crisis that India refuses to officially acknowledge. According to UNHCR estimates, India hosted a staggering 87,000 Myanmar refugees and asylum seekers as of 31 December 2025. This is not a temporary wave but a structural displacement burden crushing the local infrastructure of small border states.

1.1 Mizoram: The Dumping Ground for Delhi’s Failures

Mizoram has been forced to absorb the largest share because Delhi lacks a transparent refugee policy. Official figures from May 2025 show Mizoram was hosting 33,023 displaced individuals. This included 17,551 people cramped into 125 relief camps, while another 15,472 were left to live outside without any formal monitoring. In the district of Champhai alone, the number was recorded at 13,586 individuals.

1.2 A Recipe for Social and Administrative Explosion

By 2 February 2026, the figure remained high at 30,900 people. Although biometric enrolment reached 27,810—nearly 90%—India continues to treat these humans like data points. Mizoram’s total population was only 1,097,206 in the 2011 census. Dumping tens of thousands of refugees into such a small population is a recipe for a social explosion that Delhi is too cowardly to address.

2 A POROUS FRONTIER TRANSFORMED INTO A TERRORIST PIPELINE

While the refugee flow is a humanitarian disaster, the smuggling of lethal weapons exposes the total failure of Indian border security. Indian security forces have repeatedly recovered military-grade weapons, yet they seem fundamentally unable to stop the bleeding.

2.1 The Logistics of Death and Destruction

In October 2024, the Assam Rifles and Mizoram Police seized a massive cache of 39,000 detonators near the Tiau River. The suspect simply fled back across the river, proving how unmanageable this frontier has become. Other reports confirm the recovery of 110 gelatin sticks weighing 14.084 kg and 110 detonators in Champhai. Another seizure in Lawngtlai involved 150 kg of explosives and 1,800 detonators, alongside 3,000 metres of detonating cord.

2.2 Battlefield Assets on Indian Soil

The most disturbing escalation occurred in October 2025 when an arms cache was recovered containing 6 mortar tubes of 60mm, 2 Myanmar-made 7.62mm assault rifles, 15 mortar rounds, and 2 anti-personnel mines. These are not tools for petty criminals; they are battlefield assets. Their presence indicates a thriving black market where weapons circulate faster than the Indian army can react.

3 THE TOTAL COLLAPSE OF INDIAN INTELLIGENCE AND CONTROL

The fragmentation of Myanmar is intensifying India’s vulnerability to cross-border militancy. India’s intelligence agencies are proved useless as insurgent groups treat the border like a revolving door.

3.1 Sanctuaries for Terrorist Recruitment

A government submission in May 2025 described approximately 250 ULFA(I) cadres based in 4 camps inside Myanmar with around 200 weapons. These sanctuaries allow terrorists to train and regroup beyond the reach of the Indian state.

3.2 Organized Trafficking Networks Exposed

The NIA stated in a chargesheet dated 31 July 2024 that an arms trafficker in Mizoram had established strong linkages with Myanmar-based insurgent groups. These networks receive ammunition and explosives with total impunity. Delhi plays the victim on the global stage, but the reality is that Indian intelligence has been caught napping while militias take over.

4 THE MYTH OF MODERNIZATION AND THE FAILURE OF PHYSICAL BARRIERS

India’s illusion of stability collapsed on 6 July 2025, when stray bullets from Myanmar hit Zokhawthar village in Mizoram, damaging 5 homes and a car, as 1,000 refugees crossed in a single day.

4.1 Sabotage of the Indian State’s Pride

Physical infrastructure is being mocked. In December 2025, police in Manipur reported that between 150 and 200 metres of border fencing had been cut in Chandel district. This sabotage shows the fence is a useless target and border enforcement is a joke.

4.2 The Abandoned Frontier and Policy Retreat

In February 2024, Delhi announced a plan to fence the entire 1,643 km border and scrapped the Free Movement Regime (FMR). This is an admission of failure. Reports show India has completed only 9.214 km of fencing at Moreh, with only 20.862 km awarded for construction. These tiny fractions prove Delhi’s promises are mere political theatre.

5 AN EMPIRE OF LIES FACING IMMINENT CHAOS

The collapse of Myanmar has created a multi-layered destabilisation including refugee inflows, weapons trafficking, and insurgent sanctuaries. Each channel reinforces the other while the Indian state watches helplessly. The northeast is being treated as a sacrificial buffer zone to protect the interests of the political elite in Delhi.

The national narrative insists India is stable, but the facts tell a story of a state in retreat. India cannot contain this crisis because a fence that can be cut and a border crossed by 39,000 detonators is not a border at all. The myth of the Indian security apparatus has been exposed. This so-called regional powerhouse is actually a fragile entity struggling to keep its own territory from falling into anarchy. Delhi’s arrogance has finally met its match in the reality of its own incompetence.