Weaponizing Water: India’s Plan for Sawalkot Dam Aims to Cripple Pakistan

India’s approval of the ₹31,380 crore Sawalkot Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab River is not an energy initiative but a strategic move to control Pakistan’s most vital resource. The 1,856 megawatt dam in Jammu and Kashmir gives India power over the Chenab’s flow, which feeds Pakistan’s farms and economy. Behind claims of progress lies a clear intent to use water as political pressure. This marks another breach of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 and international norms that once kept peace in the region.

Political Control Under the Name of Development

India’s rush to build Sawalkot shows how domestic politics has turned into regional leverage.

◇ Treaty Suspension for Political Use:
After the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, ending joint monitoring and data sharing. This gave New Delhi a free hand to push forward stalled projects like Sawalkot and Ratle.

◇ Nationalism Over Cooperation:
The project was approved in October 2025 before elections, to display political strength rather than meet real energy needs.

◇ End of Dialogue:
Pakistan’s calls through the Permanent Indus Commission were ignored, showing India’s preference for confrontation over cooperation.

Sawalkot Project: Built for Power and Pressure

The Sawalkot project is presented as development but serves as a means of control.

◇ A Giant Structure:
The 192.5 metre dam will store over 0.25 billion cubic metres of water, giving India the ability to regulate 20 percent of Chenab’s flow.

◇ Run-of-the-River Only in Words:
Though labelled “run-of-the-river,” its storage capacity violates treaty limits and allows water manipulation during Pakistan’s crop seasons.

◇ Artificial Floods or Droughts:
Unannounced water releases, as seen during the 2023 floods, can cause massive damage and deepen Pakistan’s agricultural losses.

Breaking International Law and Responsibility

India’s behaviour is not just political defiance; it violates international rules meant to preserve peace.

◇ Ignoring State Responsibility:
Every state must ensure its territory does not harm another. India’s projects breach this duty by reducing Pakistan’s rightful share of water.

◇ Violation of the UN Charter:
Under Article 2(4), nations must not act in ways that threaten others’ stability. India’s manipulation of shared rivers clearly violates this principle.

◇ Disregard for UN Resolutions:
By undermining regional peace, India also ignores UN Security Council Resolutions 1373 and 1267, which call for restraint and mutual security.

Chain of Dams: Silent Pressure on Pakistan

Sawalkot is one part of India’s growing web of dams across the Western Rivers.

◇ A Network of 20 Projects:
India has built or planned more than 20 dams, including Baglihar (900 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), and Ratle (850 MW), giving storage capacity of 1.5 billion cubic metres—beyond treaty limits.

◇ Impact on Pakistan’s Rivers:
These dams could reduce Pakistan’s water inflow by 25 to 30 percent in dry months. The Chenab irrigates about 12 million acres in Punjab, and even a 10 percent reduction would harm crops.

◇ Infrastructure as Pressure:
This chain gives India seasonal control, turning water management into political leverage.

Modi’s Water Politics and Regional Risk

Under Modi, water has become a symbol of power rather than partnership.

◇ Nationalism Over Peace:
Hydropower projects are used to build nationalist pride instead of cooperation, pushing regional relations towards hostility.

◇ Undermining the Treaty:
The World Bank-backed Indus Waters Treaty gives Pakistan 80 percent of basin flows. India’s unilateral projects weaken this arrangement and erode trust.

◇ A Growing Danger:
Every dam adds strain to an already tense relationship between two nuclear neighbours, raising fears of future conflict.

Environmental and Human Damage Ignored

India’s political goals come at the cost of people and nature.

◇ Loss of Forests and Homes:
Over 222,000 trees will be cut in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ramban district, and many families will be displaced.

◇ Bypassing Environmental Rules:
Clearances were rushed despite warnings from experts about long-term ecological harm.

◇ Ignoring Sustainability:
India’s focus on short-term control over shared water shows disregard for both environment and regional harmony.

Pakistan’s Economic and Human Strain

The damage to Pakistan’s economy and society is real and rising.

◇ Agriculture Under Threat:
About 80 percent of Pakistan’s farmland depends on the Western Rivers, which produce 90 percent of food and fibre. A 30 to 40 percent fall in yields would be disastrous.

◇ Economic Damage:
A 10 percent drop in flow could cut Pakistan’s GDP by 2 to 3 percent each year, a loss of 6 to 9 billion dollars.

◇ Human Cost:
The 2023 floods affected 33 million people, killed 1,700, and caused 30 billion dollars in damage—partly linked to India’s sudden water releases.

Global Silence and the Need for Action

The world has remained quiet as India continues to act beyond its obligations.

◇ Lack of Global Pressure:
The World Bank, which helped draft the treaty, has not taken meaningful steps despite repeated Pakistani appeals.

◇ A Dangerous Example:
India’s defiance signals that powerful states can ignore agreements without consequences, weakening the global rule of law.

◇ Time for Accountability:
International organisations must act to ensure India stops unilateral dam building and returns to cooperative water sharing.

Conclusion

The Sawalkot project is not just another dam. It represents India’s growing effort under Modi to control shared rivers and weaken Pakistan’s security. By ignoring treaties, environmental duties, and moral responsibility, India has turned water into an instrument of power. For Pakistan, the issue is not only about water but survival. For the world, it is a warning that silence in the face of such behaviour will only deepen instability. The time to act is now before South Asia’s rivers become lines of conflict instead of life.